Planning Risk Calculator
Estimate how risky your current plan is
How It Works
This calculator estimates the risk of not completing your planned work using Net Available Days (NAD) and Reliable Velocity to give you a realistic capacity assessment.
The Formula
Safe Capacity =
Reliable Velocity × (NAD ÷ Standard NAD)
× (1 - Bug Fixing %) × (1 - Risk Buffer)
Capacity Ratio = Planned ÷ Safe Capacity
Reliable Velocity: Average of your worst 3 sprints from the last 10 (not total average)
Risk Levels (Probability-Based)
- Green (<80%) — High likelihood of success
- Amber (80-95%) — Moderate risk, stretch goal
- Red (>95%) — High risk of carry-over
Key Inputs
- • Net Available Days (NAD) — Actual working days after vacation/holidays
- • Bug fixing % — Directly reduces available capacity
- • Carry-over — Adds 5% (stretch) or 10% (frequent) buffer
- • Incidents — Adds 5% (sometimes) or 10% (often) buffer
This calculator anchors in reality, not optimism. Use it to spark conversations about planning risk.